Energy Perspective: Can we afford not to change?

In an effort to identify the problems and propose solutions to Hawaii’s energy future, The Hawaii Independent proposed questions to individuals who could contribute their unique insight in the energy dialogue.

John Sweeney worked as the sales director of Styrophobia before returning to pursue a PhD in Futures Studies in the Department of Political Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

Here are his responses:

1. What do you do to conserve energy?

We don’t own a TV, we bike to work and school when possible, and we never leave the house without a reusable bag and bottle.

Most people often think about energy conservation in terms of the bill that shows up once a month, but the amount of energy used in producing disposables, say nothing of the waste, is extraordinary! It takes as much energy to recycle a plastic bag as it does to produce a new one, and we actually need to think beyond bio-compostable takeout containers, which are growing in popularity around the islands, and think about the sustainability of our takeout culture—especially throw-away chopsticks.

Apparently, all of Hawaii’s drive-ins in the 1980s were using single corrugated cardboard boxes. Styrofoam, which contains known carcinogens and is made from petroleum by-products, took over the plate lunch scene after. I would love to see restaurants provide incentives to customers who bring their own containers for takeout and/or leftovers. Even more radical, I would love to see neighborhood-based dining collectives as a replacement to paying a stranger to cook meals for us. Food is energy, and the closer relationship we have with our meals, the more we will work towards energy in(ter)dependence.

2. What do you think are Hawaii’s most pressing energy obstacles?

Bureaucracy! While calls for solar, wind, and other renewables have increased of late, the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) has not done enough to upgrade the power grid to accommodate distributed generation. And even though the Abercrombie administration has showed some signs of life, it seems as though there’s still a culture of “a-slow-ha” with regards to our state’s energy footprint.

Certainly the feed-in-tariff, if one even feels comfortable calling it that, will promote some investment in photovoltaics (PV), but the cap on grid integration of renewables prevents a real tipping point for the local sustainable energy industry.

We should not continue to plan for a future with cheap and abundant oil, especially as we’re an ocean away from the closest source. Conservation will not be enough to shepherd us through the next five-to-10 years of market volatility in oil and energy futures.

There are some interesting solutions in the rumor mill—one of which included a buyout of HECO. Ultimately, I think that the most pressing obstacle is the thought that we have until 2030 to get to where we need to be!

3. Are Hawaii businesses, organizations, and individuals on the right path in terms of reducing our energy consumption?

There are lots of groups doing extremely important work in this area across the islands, but reduction of usage and conservation might not be enough. We need to re-think radically our relationship with energy and the corporate infrastructure by which our energy is produced and consumed.

Light bulbs and tire pressure make for great headlines, but if an idea is popular or widely held, then chances are it is a bit passe in the renewable energy and sustainability game.

One of the most important things that people can do to reduce their energy consumption is to eat as locally as possible. Kanu Hawaii has some great outreach and social media campaigns that promote truly local businesses. Creating an alternative transportation infrastructure (notice I didn’t say rail) is also key. I recently came back from a conference in Vancouver, which is one of the most bike-friendly cities in the world but which also has terribly dreary weather (most of the time). Cycle Manoa does some really great work in moving Honolulu to become a place where it’s safe and easy to take two wheels out on the road.

4. What do you see as Hawaii’s best source of alternative energy?

Solar, wind, and geothermal are all darlings of the renewable industry and receive lots of press, but we are surrounded by ocean for miles, so we should be focusing our efforts on ocean thermal energy conversion (OTECH) and Ocean Wave.

Seawater-based air conditioning is catching on, and as people realize that we have a vast energy resource all around us, I think that we will begin to see more investment in these sectors.

Additionally, battery storage technology is not currently at the level where we can maintain the requisite base-load for the grid with solar and wind, but the waves run 24/7, so the opportunity for this to be our bread and butter is prime, even in the face of numerous engineering, cost, and maintenance challenges.

In a future with an exponentially expanding energy demand and little or possibly no oil, the ocean is going to start looking mighty cheap all of a sudden. At a recent conference, I heard a presentation on using the moon to collect solar power and beaming it down to the earth. Also, it was recently reported that there are deposits of rare earth minerals around the island, and it is possible that investment surrounding the access to these resources, if done sustainably, might provide a spark for an energy transition.

Now, I’m not predicting these things will ever come to pass or even saying we should try them, but we must never lose sight of what the future(s) can and might hold with regards to energy production and consumption.

5. Will the State of Hawaii reach its 2030 goal of 70 percent clean energy? Why or why not? And more importantly, at what cost?

Yes ... but a heavily qualified “yes” with a few caveats.

As a futurist, I firmly believe that we should work toward building our preferred future while always modeling scenarios for alternative futures, even and perhaps especially those that make us feel uncomfortable.

It is possible that climate change, including but not limited to sea level rise, could have enough of an influence on policy, if not daily life, by 2030 to make the islands difficult to inhabit. And while it is likely that by 2030 we’ll be living more sustainably and still enjoying island life, the future from the perspective of 2030 could be vastly different than it is today, which might make us reconsider our plans.

We should have a 02130 plan if we really want to extend our minds and consider possibilities and potentialities for our future(s), but we often just go along with the idea that the future will look like the present and that growth, economic and otherwise, is the norm, even if said growth portends chaos for the future.

When I moved here six years ago, gas was about $2.50/gallon. I just filled up my Mini for $3.95/gallon. If we project that out to 2030, then the average cost per gallon will be over $16/gallon. Now, it is clear that the geopolitics of oil will certainly drive that number higher well before 2030, so while it is crucial to understand the cost of the transition to renewable and sustainable energy sources, the real question is: Can we afford not to change?

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